The Coming Inflation Wave

By Daryl G. Jones, contributorMarch 31, 2010: 6:05 AM ET


(Fortune) -- Whether the American economy is in an inflationary or deflationary environment sounds like it should be a fundamental and settled question. But due to the unprecedented financial crisis, the answer is actually subject to intense debate among economists.

Making economic projections is far from a scientific process, so it's not surprising to find valid arguments on both sides of the divide. The economists who are right will help investors drive returns over the next three years.

Inflation can be a positive or negative, depending on the level and duration of it in our economy. The main negative associated with inflation is a drop in purchasing power of money, and therefore, consumers. In extreme cases, consumers may actually start hoarding if they fear continued and aggressive price increases. The positive side of inflation is to decrease the real value of debt, or essentially provide debt relief.

How do we measure the level and duration of inflation, to know whether it will help or hurt? In basic terms, inflation is a rise in prices of basic goods and services over a given period of time. In the United States, the government generally tracks inflation using the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.

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Sell-off in US Treasuries Raises Sovereign Debt Fears

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before".

David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said Treasury yields have ratcheted up 90 basis points since December in a "destabilising fashion", for the wrong reasons. Growth has not been strong enough to revive fears of inflation. Commodity prices peaked in January and US home sales have fallen for the last three months, pointing to a double-dip in the housing market.

Mr Rosenberg said the yield spike recalls the move in the spring of 2007 just as the credit system started to unravel. "The question is how the equity market is going to handle this back-up in rates," he said.
The trigger for last week's sell-off was poor demand at Treasury auctions, linked to the passage of the Obama health care reform. Critics say it will add $1 trillion (£670bn) to America's debt over the next decade, a claim disputed fiercely by Democrats.

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WGC Releases China Gold Report - "A New World Of Opportunity" As PBoC Expected To Buy Gold, Chinese Gold Mines Become Depleted

Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge

The World Gold Council spares no praise for the imminent surge in demand in China.

"The World Gold Council (WGC) believes that gold consumption in China will continue to catch up with the rest of the world following the deregulation of the Chinese gold market in 2001. Demand from China’s two largest sectors (jewellery and investment) reached a combined total of 423 tonnes in 2009 but domestic mine supply contributed only 314 tonnes during the same year. This Shortfall creates a “snowball” effect as China’s gold industry may not be able to keep pace with the annual leap in domestic consumption despite rising to be the world’s largest gold producer since 2007. Although the country’s appetite for gold has grown, making China the second largest consumer in the world, demand in China per capita has a lot of catching up to do to equal that of Western economies. In jewellery, the Chinese per capita consumption is one of the lowest at 0.26gm when compared to countries with similar gold cultures. If gold were consumed at the same rate per capita as in India, Hong Kong or Saudi Arabia, annual Chinese demand could increase by at least 100 tonnes to as much as 4,000 tonnes in this sector alone. Nearterm inflationary expectations and rising income levels are likely to support the investment case for gold as an asset class, especially given that Chinese consumers are high savers and are looking to gold to protect their wealth."

Keep an eye out on what the PBoC will do if and when it finally decides to readjust its gold holdings.

"The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is also playing an increasingly supportive role for gold on the demand side. PBoC’s gold holdings are currently at 1.6% of its US$2.4tn total reserves – a fraction by international standards. If PBoC decides to rebalance its books to its recent peak gold holding as a proportion of reserves of 2.2% in Q4 2002, WGC estimates it could account for a total incremental demand of 400 tonnes at the current gold price."

Will supply meet demand at current prices? Negatory ghost rider. Existing gold mines are expected to be exhausted in six years. Oops.

"WGC analysis shows that, structurally, supply growth in China could be challenging unless there is more funding directed to exploration. Assuming the US Geological Survey’s figures are correct, China may exhaust existing gold mines in just six years. Despite the strong Yuan, total production costs have also risen by more than 30% in the last six years due to higher input costs (such as energy and labour) and lower ore grades. The outlook for gold in China remains positive and WGC believes that the balance between demand and supply in the Chinese gold market will continue to be in disequilibrium. In the longer term, if China continues to grow at near to the current rate in economic and wealth terms, gold consumption in China will continue to expand and has the potential to double during the next decade."

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It's Official - America Now Enforces Capital Controls

Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge

It couldn't have happened to a nicer country. On March 18, with very little pomp and circumstance, president Obama passed the most recent stimulus act, the $17.5 billion Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act (H.R. 2487), brilliantly goalseeked by the administration's millionaire cronies to abbreviate as HIRE. As it was merely the latest in an endless stream of acts destined to expand the government payroll to infinity, nobody cared about it, or actually read it.

Because if anyone had read it, the act would have been known as the Capital Controls Act, as one of the lesser, but infinitely more important provisions on page 27, known as Offset Provisions - Subtitle A—Foreign Account Tax Compliance, institutes just that. In brief, the Provision requires that foreign banks not only withhold 30% of all outgoing capital flows (likely remitting the collection promptly back to the US Treasury) but also disclose the full details of non-exempt account-holders to the US and the IRS. And should this provision be deemed illegal by a given foreign nation's domestic laws (think Switzerland), well the foreign financial institution is required to close the account. It's the law. If you thought you could move your capital to the non-sequestration safety of non-US financial institutions, sorry you lose - the law now says so. Capital Controls are now here and are now fully enforced by the law.

Let's parse through the just passed law, which has been mentioned by exactly zero mainstream media outlets.

Here is the default new state of capital outflows:

(a) IN GENERAL.—The Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by inserting after chapter 3 the following new chapter:

‘‘CHAPTER 4—TAXES TO ENFORCE REPORTING ON CERTAIN FOREIGN ACCOUNTS
‘‘Sec. 1471. Withholdable payments to foreign financial institutions.
‘‘Sec. 1472. Withholdable payments to other foreign entities.
‘‘Sec. 1473. Definitions.
‘‘Sec. 1474. Special rules.
‘‘SEC. 1471. WITHHOLDABLE PAYMENTS TO FOREIGN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.

‘‘(a) IN GENERAL.—In the case of any withholdable payment to a foreign financial institution which does not meet the requirements of subsection (b), the withholding agent with respect to such payment shall deduct and withhold from such payment a tax equal to 30 percent of the amount of such payment.

Clarifying who this law applies to:

‘‘(C) in the case of any United States account maintained by such institution, to report on an annual basis the information described in subsection (c) with respect to such account,
‘‘(D) to deduct and withhold a tax equal to 30 percent of—

‘‘(i) any passthru payment which is made by such institution to a recalcitrant account holder or another foreign financial institution which does not meet the requirements of this subsection, and

‘‘(ii) in the case of any passthru payment which is made by such institution to a foreign financial institution which has in effect an election under paragraph (3) with respect to such payment, so much of such payment as is allocable to accounts held by recalcitrant account holders or foreign financial institutions which do not meet the requirements of this subsection.

What happens if this brand new law impinges and/or is in blatant contradiction with existing foreign laws?

‘‘(F) in any case in which any foreign law would (but for a waiver described in clause (i)) prevent the reporting of any information referred to in this subsection or subsection (c) with respect to any United States account maintained by such institution—

‘‘(i) to attempt to obtain a valid and effective waiver of such law from each holder of such account, and
‘‘(ii) if a waiver described in clause (i) is not obtained from each such holder within a reasonable period of time, to close such account.

Not only are capital flows now to be overseen and controlled by the government and the IRS, but holders of foreign accounts can kiss any semblance of privacy goodbye:

‘‘(c) INFORMATION REQUIRED TO BE REPORTED ON UNITED STATES ACCOUNTS.—
‘‘(1) IN GENERAL.—The agreement described in subsection (b) shall require the foreign financial institution to report the following with respect to each United States account maintained by such institution:
‘‘(A) The name, address, and TIN of each account holder which is a specified United States person and, in the case of any account holder which is a United States owned foreign entity, the name, address, and TIN of each substantial United States owner of such entity.
‘‘(B) The account number.
‘‘(C) The account balance or value (determined at such time and in such manner as the Secretary may provide).
‘‘(D) Except to the extent provided by the Secretary, the gross receipts and gross withdrawals or payments from the account (determined for such period and in such manner as the Secretary may provide).

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Former Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market Is "Paper Gold" Ponzi

Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge

When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market.

Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets (we are assuming for the time being that all allegations of the Fed manipulating the broader equity and credit markets are completely baseless). Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of the CPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."

Christian, who describes himself as "one of the world’s foremost authorities on the markets for precious metals" yet, in the words of Gary Gensler, said "that the bullion banks had large shorts to hedge themselves selling elsewhere- how do you short something to cover a sale, I didn’t quite follow that?" and proves that current and former Goldman bankers are some of the most arrogant people alive, assuming that everyone else is an idiot and will buy whatever explanation is presented just because the CV says Goldman Sachs. Yet Christian confirms that the gold market is basically a ponzi: "in the “physical market” as the market uses that term, there is much more metal than that…there is a hundred times what there is." And there you have it: as Douglas eloquently summarizes: "the giant Ponzi trading of gold ledger entries can be sustained only if there is never a liquidity crisis in the REAL physical market. If someone asks for gold and there isn’t any the default would trigger the biggest “bank run” and default in history. This is, of course, why the Central Banks lease their gold or sell it outright to the bullion banks when they are squeezed by high demand for REAL physical gold that can not be met from their own stocks" and concludes "Almost every day we hear of a new financial fraud that has been exposed. The gold and silver market fraud is likely to be bigger than all of them. Investors in their droves, who have purchased gold in good faith in “unallocated accounts”, are going to demand delivery of their metal. They will then discover that there is only one ounce for every one hundred ounces claimed. They will find out they are “unsecured creditors”.

For those of you who missed the CFTC hearing, here are two of the must-watch clips. In the first one, Adrian Douglas introduces the underlying concerns about the Ponzi nature of the LBMA hedging situation, in which a wholesale rush to "physical delivery" would result in a one hundred fold dilution of gold holdings, and a 99% result of unsecured creditor claims (good luck collecting on that particular bankruptcy). We also meet Jeffrey Christian, formerly of Goldman and currently of CPM, in which not only does the "expert" state that a bullion bank short is hedged by further shorting, but confirms Douglas' and GATA's previous claims that the "physical" market, as defined, is a joke, as the OTC market treats gold purely as a financial asset, essentially conforming to the precepts of fractional reserve banking. As Douglas notes "He confirms that the LBMA trades hundreds of times the real underlying physical. This is even a higher estimate than I have previously made! It is, as I asserted before the Commission, a giant Ponzi Scheme."

Obama Pays More Than Buffett as U.S. Risks AAA Rating

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama.

Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.

The $2.59 trillion of Treasury Department sales since the start of 2009 have created a glut as the budget deficit swelled to a post-World War II-record 10 percent of the economy and raised concerns whether the U.S. deserves its AAA credit rating. The increased borrowing may also undermine the first-quarter rally in Treasuries as the economy improves.

“It’s a slap upside the head of the government,” said Mitchell Stapley, the chief fixed-income officer in Grand Rapids, Michigan, at Fifth Third Asset Management, which oversees $22 billion. “It could be the moment where hopefully you realize that risk is beginning to creep into your credit profile and the costs associated with that can be pretty scary.”

Moody’s Warning

While Treasuries backed by the full faith and credit of the government typically yield less than corporate debt, the relationship has flipped as Moody’s Investors Service predicts the U.S. will spend more on debt service as a percentage of revenue this year than any other top-rated country except the U.K. America will use about 7 percent of taxes for debt payments in 2010 and almost 11 percent in 2013, moving “substantially” closer to losing its AAA rating, Moody’s said last week.

“Those economies have been caught in a crisis while they are highly leveraged,” said Pierre Cailleteau, the managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s in London. “They have to make the required adjustment to stabilize markets without choking off growth.”

Advanced economies face “acute” challenges in tackling high public debt, and unwinding existing stimulus measures will not come close to bringing deficits back to prudent levels, said John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

Unprecedented Spending

All G7 countries, except Canada and Germany, will have debt-to-GDP ratios close to or exceeding 100 percent by 2014, Lipsky said in a speech yesterday at the China Development Forum in Beijing. Already this year, the average ratio in advanced economies is expected to reach the levels seen in 1950, after World War II, he said.

Obama’s unprecedented spending and the Federal Reserve’s emergency measures to fix the financial system are boosting the economy and cutting the risk of corporate failures. Standard & Poor’s said the default rate will drop to 5 percent by year-end from 10.4 percent in February.

Bonds sold by companies have returned 3.24 percent this year, including reinvested interest, compared with a 1.55 percent gain for Treasuries, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. Returns exceeded government debt by a record 23 percentage points in 2009.

By: Daniel Kruger and Bryan Keogh

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Central Bank Gold Holdings Expand at Fastest Pace Since 1964

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks added the most gold to their reserves since 1964 last year amid the longest rally in bullion prices in at least nine decades, data compiled by the World Gold Council show.

Combined holdings rose 425.4 metric tons to 30,116.9 tons, an increase worth $13.3 billion at last year’s average price, according to the data. India, Russia and China said last year they added to reserves. The expansion was the first since 1988, the data from the London-based council show

Central banks, holding about 18 percent of all gold ever mined, are expanding their holdings for the first time in a generation as investors in exchange-traded funds amass bullion as an alternative to currencies. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by the metal, are at 1,115.5 tons, more than the holdings of Switzerland.

“There’s clearly been a renaissance of gold in central bankers’ minds,” said Nick Moore, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “It’s not just been central banks taking on gold, but a general shift for physical gold in the investment sector.”

Official reserves of central banks and governments may expand by another 187 to 218 tons this year, CPM Group forecast last month. The council’s data also includes the holdings of the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and other international and regional bodies.

Gold climbed 24 percent last year, reaching a record $1,226.56 an ounce in December. World holdings rose 527 tons in 1964 and climbed 832.7 tons the year before that, according to the London-based industry group.

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Kiss AAA Goodbye - Moodys

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. and the U.K. have moved “substantially” closer to losing their AAA credit ratings as the cost of servicing their debt rose, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The governments of the two economies must balance bringing down their debt burdens without damaging growth by removing fiscal stimulus too quickly, Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s in London, said in a telephone interview.

Under the ratings company’s so-called baseline scenario, the U.S. will spend more on debt service as a percentage of revenue this year than any other top-rated country except the U.K., and will be the biggest spender from 2011 to 2013, Moody’s said today in a report.

“We expect the situation to further deteriorate in terms of the key ratings metrics before they start stabilizing,” Cailleteau said. “This story is not going to stop at the end of the year. There is inertia in the deterioration of credit metrics.”

The pound fell against the dollar and the euro for the first time in three days, depreciating 0.8 percent to $1.5090, while the dollar index snapped a four-day drop, adding 0.3 percent to 90.075.

The U.S. government will spend about 7 percent of its revenue servicing debt in 2010 and almost 11 percent in 2013, according to the baseline scenario of moderate economic recovery, fiscal adjustments in line with government plans and a gradual increase in interest rates, Moody’s said.

Under its adverse scenario, which assumes 0.5 percent lower growth each year, less fiscal adjustment and a stronger interest-rate shock, the U.S. will be paying about 15 percent of revenue in interest payments, more than the 14 percent limit that would lead to a downgrade to AA, Moody’s said.

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Have A Great Weekend!

Definition of Insanity

You Are Being Scammed. Repeat: You Are Being Scammed

(ZeroHedge.com) Presenting a detailed look at "Repo 105" - the next soundbite sure to fill the airwaves over the next weeks and months, as more and more banks are uncovered to be using this borderline criminal accounting gimmick to make their leverage ratios look better. This is the first time we have heard this loophole abuse by a bank, be it defunct (Lehman) or existing (everyone else).

There should be an immediate investigation into how many other banks are currently taking advantage of this artificial scheme to manipulate and misrepresent their cap ratio, and just why the New York Fed can claim it had no idea of this very critical component of the Shadow Economy.

From the report:

"Lehman employed off-balance sheet devices, known within Lehman as “Repo 105” and “Repo 108” transactions, to temporarily remove securities inventory from its balance sheet, usually for a period of seven to ten days, and to create a materially misleading picture of the firm’s financial condition in late 2007 and 2008. Repo 105 transactions were nearly identical to standard repurchase and resale (“repo”) transactions that Lehman (and other investment banks) used to secure short-term financing, with a critical difference: Lehman accounted for Repo 105 transactions as “sales” as opposed to financing transactions based upon the overcollateralization or higher than normal haircut in a Repo 105 transaction. By recharacterizing the Repo 105 transaction as a “sale,” Lehman removed the inventory from its balance sheet."

"Lehman regularly increased its use of Repo 105 transactions in the days prior to reporting periods to reduce its publicly reported net leverage and balance sheet. Lehman’s periodic reports did not disclose the cash borrowing from the Repo 105 transaction – i.e., although Lehman had in effect borrowed tens of billions of dollars in these transactions, Lehman did not disclose the known obligation to repay the debt. Lehman used the cash from the Repo 105 transaction to pay down other liabilities, thereby reducing both the total liabilities and the total assets reported on its balance sheet and lowering its leverage ratios. Thus, Lehman’s Repo 105 practice consisted of a two-step process: (1) undertaking Repo 105 transactions followed by (2) the use of Repo 105 cash borrowings to pay down liabilities, thereby reducing leverage. A few days after the new quarter began, Lehman would borrow the necessary funds to repay the cash borrowing plus interest, repurchase the securities, and restore the assets to its balance sheet."

Lehman never publicly disclosed its use of Repo 105 transactions, its accounting treatment for these transactions, the considerable escalation of its total Repo 105 usage in late 2007 and into 2008, or the material impact these transactions had on the firm’s publicly reported net leverage ratio. According to former Global Financial Controller Martin Kelly, a careful review of Lehman’s Forms 10?K and 10?Q would not reveal Lehman’s use of Repo 105 transactions. Lehman failed to disclose its Repo 105 practice even though Kelly believed “that the only purpose or motive for the transactions was reduction in balance sheet;” felt that “there was no substance to the transactions;” and expressed concerns with Lehman’s Repo 105 program to two consecutive Lehman Chief Financial Officers – Erin Callan and Ian Lowitt – advising them that the lack of economic substance to Repo 105 transactions meant “reputational risk” to Lehman if the firm’s use of the transactions became known to the public. In addition to its material omissions, Lehman affirmatively misrepresented in its financial statements that the firm treated all repo transactions as financing transactions – i.e., not sales – for financial reporting purposes.

And here is the Fed punchline, as it once again implicates Tim Geithner:

"From 2003 to 2009, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner served as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (“FRBNY”). The Examiner described to Secretary Geithner how Lehman used Repo 105 transactions to remove approximately $50 billion of liquid assets from the balance sheet at quarter-end in 2008 and explained that this practice reduced Lehman’s net leverage. Secretary Geithner “did not recall being aware of” Lehman’s Repo 105 program, but stated: “If this had been a bank we were supervising, that [i.e., Lehman’s Repo 105 program] would have been a huge issue for the New York Fed.”

And even though the Fed should have been fully aware of any shadow transaction be they "matched book" repos or the "105 variety, nobody had any clue. Just who the hell was regulating banks???

Jan Voigts, who was an Examining Officer in FRBNY’s Bank Supervision Department, had no knowledge of Lehman removing assets from its balance sheet at or near quarter-end via a repo trade treated as a true sale under a United Kingdom opinion letter.

Arthur Angulo, who was a Senior Vice President in FRBNY’s Bank Supervision department, likewise was unaware that Lehman engaged in repo transactions at quarter-end, under a United Kingdom true sale opinion letter, where the assets would be returned to Lehman’s balance sheet following the end of the reporting period. Angulo said that the described repo transactions appeared to go “beyond other types of [permissible] balance sheet management." Angulo also said that he would have wanted to know about off-market transactions where Lehman accepted a higher haircutthan a repo seller normally would accept for a certain type of collateral.

Thomas Baxter, FRBNY General Counsel, had no knowledge of Repo 105 transactions, either by name or design. Baxter was generally aware of firms using quarter-end and month-end “balance sheet window-dressing,” but did not recall this being an issue linked to Lehman specifically.

Stunningly, nobody at the SEC was aware of Lehman's Repo 105 program. And guess what: NEITHER DID DICK FULD. This is unbelievable - the criminality reaches to the very top, yet the very top denies all knowledge.

"Richard Fuld, Lehman’s former Chief Executive Officer denied any recollection of Lehman’s use of Repo 105 transactions. Fuld said he had no knowledge that Lehman treated any kind of repo transaction as a true sale or that Lehman ever removed from its balance sheet assets transferred in a repo transaction. In addition, Fuld did not recall having seen any reports referencing the amount of the firm’s Repo 105 activity. Fuld further stated that he did not know that Lehman removed approximately $49 and $50 billion in inventory off its balance sheet at quarter-end through the use of Repo 105 transactions in first quarter 2008 and second quarter 2008, respectively. Fuld said, however, that if he had learned that Lehman was temporarily cleansing its balance sheet of assets at quarter-end through Repo 105 transactions, it would have concerned him."

Evidence, however, suggests that Fuld is blatantly lying:

"Fuld’s denial of recollection must be weighed by a trier of fact against other evidence. Fuld recalled having many conversations with his executives about reducing net leverage and emphasized to the Examiner how important it was for Lehman to reduce its net leverage. The night before the March 28, 2008 Executive Committee meeting, Fuld received materials for the meeting, including an agenda of topics including “Repo 105/108” and “Delever v Derisk” and a presentation that referenced Lehman’s quarter-end Repo 105 usage for first quarter 2008 – $49.1 billion. The materials also were forwarded by Fuld’s assistant to other Lehman executives. It appears that Fuld did not attend the March 28 meeting, but Bart McDade recalled having specific discussions with Fuld about Lehman’s Repo 105 usage in June 2008. Sometime that month, McDade spoke to Fuld about reducing Lehman’s use of Repo 105 transactions. McDade walked Fuld through the Balance Sheet and Key Disclosures document (reproduced in part below) and discussed with Fuld Lehman’s quarter-end Repo 105 usage – $38.6 billion at year-end 2007; $49.1 billion at first quarter 2008; and $50.3 billion at second quarter 2008."

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Budget Deficit Sets Record in February

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER (AP)

WASHINGTON — The government ran up the largest monthly deficit in history in February, keeping the flood of red ink on track to top last year's record for the full year.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the February deficit totaled $220.9 billion, 14 percent higher than the previous record set in February of last year.

The deficit through the first five months of this budget year totals $651.6 billion, 10.5 percent higher than a year ago.

The Obama administration is projecting that the deficit for the 2010 budget year will hit an all-time high of $1.56 trillion, surpassing last year's $1.4 trillion total. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will remain above $1 trillion in 2011, giving the country thrree straight years of $1 trillion-plus deficits.

The administration says the huge deficits are necessary to get the country out of the deepest recession since the 1930s. But Republicans have attacked the stimulus spending as wasteful and a failure at the primary objective of lowering unemployment.

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Houston, We Have A Problem

As Budget Deficit Hits Record High, Interest On US Public Debt Hits Record Low

(ZeroHedge.com)- What is wrong with this picture: the MTS just announced that the February budget deficit was $220.9 billion, after receipts of just $107.5 billion with vastly surpassed by outlays of $328.4 billion. This is a record.

Yet the interest on the public debt was a mere $16.9 billion (page 13 of the MTS report). The reason for this is because as TreasuryDirect points out, in February the interest on public marketable debt (actual cash outlays), which as of Monday stood at $8.061 trillion, hit an all time low of 2.548%.

How is it possible that unprecedented debt accumulation can result in ever declining interest rates, and Treasury auctions, such as today's 10 Year reopening, in which the Bid To Cover hit an all time high? One answer: The Federal Reserve, which through complete domination of the entire capital market courtesy of ZIRP and QE has now turned market logic upside down by 180 degrees.

In a normal world, the more money you borrow, the greater the associated risk, and the greater the interest payments on this debt. Not in America though. So can we assume that the Fed can forever keep rates on debt at record low levels? No. Which begs the question: what happens when interest rates do finally start going up?

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Moody's Warns Of Pain Ahead For Financials; Profitability Concerns Due To Record Charge-Offs

(ZeroHedge.com)- A new report by Moody's "U.S. Bank Asset Quality: Negative Trends Slow Down, But The Pain Isn't Over" has some gloomy observations about the asset quality of the US financial system, and its implications for future charge offs and overall profitability.

In estimating total loan charge-offs between 2008 and 2011 Moody's predicts that of the total $536 billion (really $633 billion if unadjusted for purchasing accounting marks), which is equal to 9.7% of all loan outstanding at December 31, 2007, only $240 billion has been charged off, leaving $296 billion still to hit the books. Yet banks have taken loan loss allowances of "only" $188 billion, leaving just over $100 billion unaccounted for. And people wonder why banks are unwilling to lend.

Moody's conclusion on what happens as reality catches up with charge offs: "Although banks have provisioned for a substantial amount of their remaining charge-offs, the additional provision required will extend the period that many banks will be unprofitable well into 2010, and will reduce capital levels." Obviously, Moody's estimates do not go past 2011 when many anticipate the next major wave of loan impairments to occur in the form of Option ARM resets and Commercial Real Estate maturities.

Furthermore, Moody's does not account for securitized credit card losses, which will also be an area of major pain for the banks in the upcoming years. Just how big the impact of all these will be is still to be determined although it is very likely that the overall impact will impair overall bank capital by well over $100 billion over the next several years.

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Failed Banks May Get Pension-Fund Backing as FDIC Seeks Cash

Dakin Campbell
Bloomberg
March 9, 2010

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is trying to encourage public retirement funds that control more than $2 trillion to buy all or part of failed lenders, taking a more direct role in propping up the banking system, said people briefed on the matter.

Direct investments may allow funds such as those in Oregon, New Jersey and California to cut fees for private-equity managers, and the agency to get better prices for distressed assets, the people said. They declined to be identified because talks with regulators are confidential.

Oregon’s retirement fund may contribute $100 million as regulators seek “the support of state pension funds to solve the crisis surrounding ongoing bank failures,” Jay Fewel, a senior investment officer at the Oregon State Treasury, said in a presentation at the fund’s Feb. 24 meeting. New Jersey’s fund may also participate, said Orin Kramer, chairman of New Jersey’s State Investment Council.

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Gold Specialist Exclusive Report - March 2010

Gold and Silver have both traded sideways over the last 30-45 days giving you more time to make acquisitions at levels that we consider oversold and undervalued. Although the recent trend has been sideways, we did see a big run up in both metals on Tuesday, March 2nd.

This new run, could push Gold and Silver much higher - many are speculating that Gold will trade in excess of $1350/oz in 2010. Others are calling for severe shortages in the Gold and Silver markets. These shortages are never good, in the height of the financial crisis in 2008, wholesale bids on bullion products like the Silver Eagles were trading for almost 30% over the spot price, and after paying more than 30% over spot, clients had to wait up to 6 weeks to receive their shipment, not a good scenario.

Consider the articles "Brace Yourself for the Coming Gold Shortage" and "Gold to Hit $1350-$1400 by Late Spring".

Debt - The Word of the Month
The current scenario financially, on a worldwide basis, is one of despair. In 2008 we were awestruck at the complete failure of Lehman Brothers et al, in 2010 and onward, we believe that instead of business giants going bust, it will be entire Countries and States that go under. If you think the issues of Lehman and Bear Sterns were bad, wait until the repercussions are felt when entire Countries go bust.

If the word of the month over the last three months has been hyperinflation, the new word of the month that is on the tips of most financial pundits tongues is Sovereign Debt. It is interesting that this is the case since burdensome Sovereign Debt loads are the problem that normally ends in hyperinflation, not the other way around. So in reality, the Sovereign Debt issue that is on everyone's minds, especially pertaining to the financial fiasco in Greece, should have been the first conversation piece, not hyperinflation. Since unsustainable debt is a precursor to hyperinflation, it should be terribly concerning to our readers that the only thing the mainstream media and pundits seem to be talking about these days, is, you guessed it, unsustainable debt. By omission, these mainstream pundits, are telling you that inflation is on the way and to buy all the Gold and Silver that you can, while you can.

The Global Debt Bomb
Over the last 30 days, many of us have heard about the debt crisis in Greece, but how many of us have considered a "Global Debt Bomb"? Forbes Magazine has considered it, and in fact, recently ran a cover story with the same title. In the article, the author points out that these unsustainable debt levels are not limited to just Greece. In fact, in this year alone, Governments around the world will issue an estimated 4.5 TRILLION in debt, an amount that is three times the five year average for industrial countries. Of that 4.5 Trillion, the United States accounts for a whopping 45% of total debt worldwide. According to estimates, the amount of debt issued by Global Governments in 2010 would be enough to buy every ounce of Gold ever mined in the history of the world, all in a single year!

This mammoth accumulation of debt is unprecedented, and there will be consequences. Many are claiming that the debt crisis in Greece will spread to the doorstep of America sooner rather than later. In an article published in one of the most prestigious financial newspapers on the planet, the Financial Times, entitled "A Greek Crisis Headed to America" the author gives the following warning:

"For the world's biggest economy, the US, the day of reckoning still seems reassuringly remote. The worse things get in the EuroZone, the more the US dollar rallies as nervous investors park their cash in the "safe haven" of American government debt. This effect may persist for some months, just as the dollar and Treasuries rallied in the depths of the banking panic in late 2008. Yet even a casual look at the fiscal position of the federal government (not to mention the states) makes a nonsense of the phrase "safe haven". US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941."

Here in the United States of Debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the Gross Federal Debt will equal 100% of GDP in just two years time. Not only that, the CBO also stated that the United States will NEVER have another balanced budget. You read that right - NEVER.

The Dam is Breaking
While the Greek Crisis seems to be the epicenter of our most recent financial Earthquake, its aftershocks are being felt around the world. A Major French Bank, Societe Generale, has recently put out a report stating that the collapse of the Euro is inevitable, especially if the EuroZone bails out Greece. You see, in the past, before the ideas of Free Trade Agreements and Globalism were implemented, the natural firewall to crisis like this one were national borders and boundaries. Today, all it takes is one crack in the dam to bring down the whole world economy.

It would be intellectually dishonest to believe that the debt crisis is isolated to the EuroZone and Greece. America has problems of its own that aren't much different from those seen in Greece. This realization has led many to believe that the United States could be in the beginning stages of losing its precious AAA rating on its bonds. It has also led to major banks in the United States, like Bank of America, to issue warnings reported in Bloomberg with the title "Junk Debt 'Wall' to Trigger U.S. Defaults" in it Bank of America issues the following ominous statement:

"A 'wall' of junk debt maturing in the next four years will increase the risk of corporate defaults in the U.S., according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Almost 90 percent of loans outstanding mature in the next five years, compared with an average of 36 percent between 2005 and 2009, according to the report."

Statements like those from Bank of America were also echoed more recently by the President of the Kansas City Fed, Thomas Hoenig, who warned that unless the U.S. take difficult steps to reduce spending and increase revenue, (think more taxation) the Federal Reserve might be forced to "fund" the "unsustainable" Federal debt. These buzzwords could be a veiled threat that the Federal Reserve, if it hasn't already, will soon be forced to monetize our debt, an action that is highly inflationary and would likely send Gold and Silver soaring.

China Holds the Ace in the Hole
Question. If we at the Austin Report, along with many of our readers I am sure, are astute enough to pick up the warning signs issued by our major banks and Government Agencies, don't you think the Chinese are smart enough to catch on as well? Of course they are. In fact, not only has the Chinese Government caught on, they have also taken decisive action. China sold a record 34 BILLION in United States Debt in the month of December alone. The Chinese people and state controlled press celebrated the move calling it "commendable".

The movement to abstain from buying United States Debt is gaining in popularity as well. A recent push by Military Leaders in the Peoples Liberation Army of China is also occurring. Chinese Generals just released a report stating that the Chinese Government should "attack by oblique means a nd stealthy feints" to make its point in Washington. Adding "we could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some U.S. government bonds".

Not if, but when Foreigners stop buying United States Debt, when the "wall" of Debt causes the tsunami of defaults that Bank of America warned us about, when the growing movement to stop buying U.S. debt spreads worldwide, our day of reckoning will come. Don't worry though, Barack Obama and those in his administration have a plan in mind for you. A plan that reminds me of the offer made in the movie the Godfather, an offer that can't be refused.

The Government Wants Your 401K and IRA's
Just in the nick of time, the Government has a plan in store for us. Two aides in the Obama Administration just offered up a plan to "encourage" workers to convert their 401K's and IRA's into annuities. The plan is being sold as a way to prepare for retirement that offers a "guaranteed income stream". The supposed reason for this is because of the recent collapse and complete obliteration of most retirement accounts after the stock market plunge that started in 2008. The plan sounds reasonable but when you dig deeper, the more sinister motives are revealed.

According to many researchers, this plan is more than an "encouragement" of converting IRA's and 401K's into annuities, it could and most likely will, morph into a plan that is mandatory. Even worse, according to our research and others, the annuities will be based on..you guessed it, United States Bonds. The problem with this is that as inflation rises, which seems to be certainty, so will interest rates. As interest rates rise, the value of the bonds will plummet, and the so called safe and guaranteed annual income can and will vanish in the blink of an eye.

So if the foreigners won't buy our bonds, someone will be forced to, and that someone is increasingly looking like me and you. Please consider the article linked below entitled "Retiree Annuities May be Promoted By Obama Aides".

A Plan of Action
In Summary, Sovereign Debt is the likely candidate that will lead us into the next financial nightmare. Many are saying that the crisis in Greece will be coming to America. A wall of junk debt is likely to lead to a wave of defaults here in the United States. The Chinese, who have kept our economy afloat for at least the last decade by buying our debt, have not only stopped buying U.S. debt, they are SELLING U.S. debt. These facts and others have led Federal Officials to put out warnings saying that reductions in spending and more taxation is necessary less the Fed be forced to monetize our debt. In response to this, officials in the Obama administration and others basically want to nationalize a portion of your retirement savings, and force you to put them into annuities that will probably be based on our fragile bond market.

The proverbial writing seems to be on the wall. The warning signs are clear and precise. All of these issues and others point to much higher prices in the precious metals arena. I have included a special offer linked to this report. The offer is for the $20 Liberty Gold Coin. If you like big one ounce coins, if you are worried about the possibility of a Gold confiscation, and if you want a coin that adds leverage with a history of outperforming bullion, then look no further than the $20 Liberty produced from 1850-1907. We feel that coins like the $20 Liberty have a strong chance of outperforming bullion. In fact, in 2009 a 5% move in Gold translated into a 35% move in coins similar to the coin being offered above. Please review this offer and get back to me as soon as possible as supplies are limited.

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. This sites content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author.