Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Gold Rises to Record as Investors Seek Alternative to Currency
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to a record for the second straight day as financial turmoil in Europe spurred demand for an alternative to currencies.
Gold priced in euros, British pounds and Swiss francs also rallied to all-time highs on concern that a plan to rescue Europe’s indebted nations will slow the region’s economic recovery and devalue the 16-nation common currency.
“Gold is expensive, but people in the euro zone are moving out of their currencies and forcing themselves into gold,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago. “There’s a lot of fear on the part of the Europeans that moves to mitigate their debt crisis will only lead to more problems. People want to be in the currency of last resort.”
On the Comex in New York, gold futures for June delivery rose $22.80, or 1.9 percent, to $1,243.10 an ounce. Earlier, the price reached $1,247.70, the highest ever.
The euro has dropped 12 percent against the dollar this year on concern that budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal will escalate. Over the weekend, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund announced a rescue package of almost $1 trillion.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, have advanced 5.2 percent this year to a record.
“The whole bailout is quantitative easing across all of Europe,” said Michael Guido, the director of hedge-fund sales at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in New York, who expects gold to rise to $1,500 by the end of the year. “You’re seeing this big rush into gold ETFs, physical bars and coins out of Europe that’s supporting the thesis that gold is the default currency.”
Read Entire Article
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to a record for the second straight day as financial turmoil in Europe spurred demand for an alternative to currencies.
Gold priced in euros, British pounds and Swiss francs also rallied to all-time highs on concern that a plan to rescue Europe’s indebted nations will slow the region’s economic recovery and devalue the 16-nation common currency.
“Gold is expensive, but people in the euro zone are moving out of their currencies and forcing themselves into gold,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago. “There’s a lot of fear on the part of the Europeans that moves to mitigate their debt crisis will only lead to more problems. People want to be in the currency of last resort.”
On the Comex in New York, gold futures for June delivery rose $22.80, or 1.9 percent, to $1,243.10 an ounce. Earlier, the price reached $1,247.70, the highest ever.
The euro has dropped 12 percent against the dollar this year on concern that budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal will escalate. Over the weekend, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund announced a rescue package of almost $1 trillion.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, have advanced 5.2 percent this year to a record.
“The whole bailout is quantitative easing across all of Europe,” said Michael Guido, the director of hedge-fund sales at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in New York, who expects gold to rise to $1,500 by the end of the year. “You’re seeing this big rush into gold ETFs, physical bars and coins out of Europe that’s supporting the thesis that gold is the default currency.”
Read Entire Article
The Second Leg of the Great Depression Was Caused by European Defaults
(George Washington Blog)- Many Americans know that the Great Depression was started by the bursting of the giant Wall Street bubble of the 1920's (fueled by the use of bank deposits on speculative gambling, which is why Glass-Steagall was passed) , which in turn caused a run on American banks.
But most Americans don't know that the second leg of the Depression was caused by European defaults.
As Yves Smith reminds us:
Recall that the Great Depression nadir was the sovereign debt default phase.
The second leg down of the Depression was larger than the first, as shown by this chart of the Dow:
The second leg down was primarily initiated by the failure of the Creditanstalt bank in Austria. Creditanstalt (also spelled Kreditanstalt) declared bankruptcy in May 1931.
As Time Magazine noted on November 2, 1931:
May 14 [1931]: First thunderclap of the present crisis: collapse in Vienna of Kreditanstalt, colossal Rothschild bank, which is taken over by the Austrian Government, shaking confidence in related German banks.
A book written by Aurel Schubert, published by Cambridge University Press, points out that:
Austria played a prominent role in the worldwide events of 1931 as the largest bank in Central and Eastern Europe, the Viennese Credit-Anstalt, collapsed and led Europe into a financial panic that spread to other parts of the world. The events in Austria were pivotal to the economic developments of the 1930s ....
As Megan McArdle points out:
The Great Depression was composed of two separate panics. As you can see from contemporary accounts ... in 1930 people thought they'd seen the worst of things.
Unfortunately, the economic conditions created by the first panic were now eating away at the foundations of financial institutions and governments, notably the failure of Creditanstalt in Austria. The Austrian government, mired in its own problems, couldn't forestall bankruptcy; though the bank was ultimately bought by a Norwegian bank, the contagion had already spread. To Germany. Which was one of the reasons that the Nazis came to power. It's also, ultimately, one of the reasons that we had our second banking crisis, which pushed America to the bottom of the Great Depression, and brought FDR to power here.
Not that I think we're going to get another Third Reich out of this, or even another Great Depression. But it means we should be wary of the infamous "double dip" that a lot of economists have been expecting.
Way to go, guys ... you're re-creating history.
But most Americans don't know that the second leg of the Depression was caused by European defaults.
As Yves Smith reminds us:
Recall that the Great Depression nadir was the sovereign debt default phase.
The second leg down of the Depression was larger than the first, as shown by this chart of the Dow:
The second leg down was primarily initiated by the failure of the Creditanstalt bank in Austria. Creditanstalt (also spelled Kreditanstalt) declared bankruptcy in May 1931.
As Time Magazine noted on November 2, 1931:
May 14 [1931]: First thunderclap of the present crisis: collapse in Vienna of Kreditanstalt, colossal Rothschild bank, which is taken over by the Austrian Government, shaking confidence in related German banks.
A book written by Aurel Schubert, published by Cambridge University Press, points out that:
Austria played a prominent role in the worldwide events of 1931 as the largest bank in Central and Eastern Europe, the Viennese Credit-Anstalt, collapsed and led Europe into a financial panic that spread to other parts of the world. The events in Austria were pivotal to the economic developments of the 1930s ....
As Megan McArdle points out:
The Great Depression was composed of two separate panics. As you can see from contemporary accounts ... in 1930 people thought they'd seen the worst of things.
Unfortunately, the economic conditions created by the first panic were now eating away at the foundations of financial institutions and governments, notably the failure of Creditanstalt in Austria. The Austrian government, mired in its own problems, couldn't forestall bankruptcy; though the bank was ultimately bought by a Norwegian bank, the contagion had already spread. To Germany. Which was one of the reasons that the Nazis came to power. It's also, ultimately, one of the reasons that we had our second banking crisis, which pushed America to the bottom of the Great Depression, and brought FDR to power here.
Not that I think we're going to get another Third Reich out of this, or even another Great Depression. But it means we should be wary of the infamous "double dip" that a lot of economists have been expecting.
Way to go, guys ... you're re-creating history.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
The Gold Standard, A Case For Another Look
By Sean Fieler and Jeffrey Bell
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, May 7, 2010
Washington's elites are quietly preparing a post-election fiscal compromise that will fund much of President Barack Obama's domestic spending agenda with huge tax increases. They aim to create a value-added tax and will argue that there is no alternative even though doing so will leave the United States resembling the stagnant, bureaucratic nations of Western Europe.
But there is an alternative. The U.S. could return to a gold standard, a system that would not only prevent the government from running chronic budget deficits but would also curb attempts to manipulate the value of the dollar for political reasons.
The value of a gold standard was proven in the 19th century. Following the English parliament's passage of the Coinage Act in 1816, which created a gold standard in England in collaboration with the semi-private Bank of England, gold gradually displaced copper and silver to become the world's sole final currency. In doing so, gold established ground rules for international trade and integrated the world's economy. Countries that adopted the international gold standard prospered. This remarkably successful monetary system only blew apart with the outbreak of World War I in 1914.
Read Entire Article
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, May 7, 2010
Washington's elites are quietly preparing a post-election fiscal compromise that will fund much of President Barack Obama's domestic spending agenda with huge tax increases. They aim to create a value-added tax and will argue that there is no alternative even though doing so will leave the United States resembling the stagnant, bureaucratic nations of Western Europe.
But there is an alternative. The U.S. could return to a gold standard, a system that would not only prevent the government from running chronic budget deficits but would also curb attempts to manipulate the value of the dollar for political reasons.
The value of a gold standard was proven in the 19th century. Following the English parliament's passage of the Coinage Act in 1816, which created a gold standard in England in collaboration with the semi-private Bank of England, gold gradually displaced copper and silver to become the world's sole final currency. In doing so, gold established ground rules for international trade and integrated the world's economy. Countries that adopted the international gold standard prospered. This remarkably successful monetary system only blew apart with the outbreak of World War I in 1914.
Read Entire Article
Monday, May 10, 2010
Will Silver (And Gold) Prices Rise Now that the Feds Are Launching Criminal and Civil Investigations Into Manipulation of the Silver Market?
(George Washington Blog) The Feds are launching criminal and civil investigations into manipulation of the silver market by JP Morgan.
As the New York Post points out:
Federal agents have launched parallel criminal and civil probes of JPMorgan Chase and its trading activity in the precious metals market, The Post has learned.
The probes are centering on whether or not JPMorgan, a top derivatives holder in precious metals, acted improperly to depress the price of silver, sources said.
The Commodities Futures Trade Commission is looking into civil charges, and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is handling the criminal probe, according to sources, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.
The probes are far-ranging, with federal officials looking into JPMorgan's precious metals trades on the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) exchange, which is a physical delivery market, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) for future paper derivative trades.
JPMorgan increased its silver derivative holdings by $6.76 billion, or about 220 million ounces, during the last three months of 2009, according to the Office of Comptroller of the Currency.
Regulators are pulling trading tickets on JPMorgan's precious metals moves on all the exchanges as part of the probe, sources tell The Post.
The probes stem from testimony from whistleblower Andrew Maguire - a London metals trader formerly of Goldman Sachs - saying that gold and silver bullion markets are rigged that (and see this). One of his specific allegations is that JP Morgan has been fraudulently suppressing the price of silver.
Omnis' Jim Rickards, GATA's Adrian Douglas and others have also demonstrated that the big bullion dealers and ETFs don't have nearly as much as physical bullion as they claim.
This could cause a rise in the price of silver (and gold) if either one of the following occurs:
(1) The investigations cause the price suppression schemes to stop, as the price manipulators know that someone is watching. If the suppression stops, the prices will naturally rise.
or
(2) The investigations cause enough investors to lose confidence and demand physical delivery of silver (or gold). Because there is less physical metals than claimed (and more paper derivatives), enough demand for physical delivery would reveal the game of musical chairs for what it is, driving the price of physical metals higher.
Of course, if enough investors hear about the investigations, that alone could cause more people to buy silver (and gold), thus driving up prices.
As the New York Post points out:
Federal agents have launched parallel criminal and civil probes of JPMorgan Chase and its trading activity in the precious metals market, The Post has learned.
The probes are centering on whether or not JPMorgan, a top derivatives holder in precious metals, acted improperly to depress the price of silver, sources said.
The Commodities Futures Trade Commission is looking into civil charges, and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is handling the criminal probe, according to sources, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.
The probes are far-ranging, with federal officials looking into JPMorgan's precious metals trades on the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) exchange, which is a physical delivery market, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) for future paper derivative trades.
JPMorgan increased its silver derivative holdings by $6.76 billion, or about 220 million ounces, during the last three months of 2009, according to the Office of Comptroller of the Currency.
Regulators are pulling trading tickets on JPMorgan's precious metals moves on all the exchanges as part of the probe, sources tell The Post.
The probes stem from testimony from whistleblower Andrew Maguire - a London metals trader formerly of Goldman Sachs - saying that gold and silver bullion markets are rigged that (and see this). One of his specific allegations is that JP Morgan has been fraudulently suppressing the price of silver.
Omnis' Jim Rickards, GATA's Adrian Douglas and others have also demonstrated that the big bullion dealers and ETFs don't have nearly as much as physical bullion as they claim.
This could cause a rise in the price of silver (and gold) if either one of the following occurs:
(1) The investigations cause the price suppression schemes to stop, as the price manipulators know that someone is watching. If the suppression stops, the prices will naturally rise.
or
(2) The investigations cause enough investors to lose confidence and demand physical delivery of silver (or gold). Because there is less physical metals than claimed (and more paper derivatives), enough demand for physical delivery would reveal the game of musical chairs for what it is, driving the price of physical metals higher.
Of course, if enough investors hear about the investigations, that alone could cause more people to buy silver (and gold), thus driving up prices.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Mystery Abounds With IMF's Latest Gold Sale
(GATA) - Another unexplained sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund turned up today in another Reuters story based on another statement from the World Gold Council.
This time the sale is said to have been 18.5 tonnes unloaded in March. Two weeks ago the WGC reported that the IMF had sold 5.6 tonnes in February. (See http://www.gata.org/node/8578.)
Once again the IMF apparently has issued no formal statement about the most recent sales, disclosure coming only because the WGC thumbed through the IMF's monthly International Financial Statistics report and mentioned it to a select reporter or two. (No press release about the sales seems to have been posted at the WGC's Internet site either.)
But then the IMF isn't talking much about its supposed gold lately, having refused last month to respond even cursorily to some pointed questions from Business Insider's Vince Veneziani (see http://www.gata.org/node/8583), questions that were similar to questions put to the IMF by GATA itself in April 2008 and evaded just as badly. (See http://www.gata.org/node/6242).
GATA knows of two investment houses that recently applied to the IMF to purchase some of its supposed gold and were refused, one of them being Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. (See http://www.gata.org/node/8511.) Since the money of those investment houses presumably is as good as anyone else's, since the IMF for years has been issuing dozens of statements about selling gold for every actual sale made, and since the IMF as recently as last November issued a detailed statement about its supposed sale of 200 tonnes to India (see http://www.gata.org/node/7971), the IMF's unusual silence about its two most recent sales invites suspicion and speculation about where the gold is going.
If it's not going to investment houses that want to buy it and if its destination cannot be disclosed lest the markets figure out what is happening, is the gold being used to plug holes in the increasingly leaky dike of Western central bank and bullion bank gold price suppression?
Is the gold being rationed to members of the London Bullion Market Association, whose impossibly short positions in gold and silver were disclosed over the last six months in reports by GATA board member Adrian Douglas (see http://www.gata.org/node/7908, http://www.gata.org/node/7911, and http://www.gata.org/node/8388) and then candidly confirmed by CPM Group founder Jeffrey M. Christian at the March 25 hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (see http://www.gata.org/node/8478)?
It's too bad that the World Gold Council, which reportedly has an annual budget above $60 million, doesn't press these questions after thumbing through those subtle IMF reports. But then it's too bad that the World Gold Council exists mainly to ensure that there never is a world gold council.
Today's Reuters story is appended.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
IMF Sold 18.5 Tonnes of Gold in March vs 5.6 Tonnes in February
From Reuters
via Yahoo News
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100505/tbs-gold-imf-sale-7318940.html
NEW YORK -- The International Monetary Fund sold 18.5 tonnes of gold in March under the second phase of its gold sales program, industry group World Gold Council said on Tuesday.
The IMF's sales, which totaled 5.6 tonnes in February, are taking place under the umbrella of the third Central Bank Gold Agreement, which began in September 2009. Signatories of the CBGA are largely euro zone central banks, the largest gold holder of which is Germany.
Natalie Dempster, WGC's director of government affairs, said IMF released the data in its monthly International Financial Statistics publication.
Total sales under the pact, which limits signatories' gold sales to 400 tonnes a year, were just 7.2 tonnes to April 20.
The IMF began its planned sales of 403.3 tonnes of gold last year. It sold 200 tonnes to India and smaller amounts to Sri Lanka and Mauritius last year.
The price of gold gained almost 6 percent in April, its biggest one-month rise since November, as the credit ratings downgrades of Greece, Spain, and Portugal, sparked a flight to safety into the metal.
This time the sale is said to have been 18.5 tonnes unloaded in March. Two weeks ago the WGC reported that the IMF had sold 5.6 tonnes in February. (See http://www.gata.org/node/8578.)
Once again the IMF apparently has issued no formal statement about the most recent sales, disclosure coming only because the WGC thumbed through the IMF's monthly International Financial Statistics report and mentioned it to a select reporter or two. (No press release about the sales seems to have been posted at the WGC's Internet site either.)
But then the IMF isn't talking much about its supposed gold lately, having refused last month to respond even cursorily to some pointed questions from Business Insider's Vince Veneziani (see http://www.gata.org/node/8583), questions that were similar to questions put to the IMF by GATA itself in April 2008 and evaded just as badly. (See http://www.gata.org/node/6242).
GATA knows of two investment houses that recently applied to the IMF to purchase some of its supposed gold and were refused, one of them being Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. (See http://www.gata.org/node/8511.) Since the money of those investment houses presumably is as good as anyone else's, since the IMF for years has been issuing dozens of statements about selling gold for every actual sale made, and since the IMF as recently as last November issued a detailed statement about its supposed sale of 200 tonnes to India (see http://www.gata.org/node/7971), the IMF's unusual silence about its two most recent sales invites suspicion and speculation about where the gold is going.
If it's not going to investment houses that want to buy it and if its destination cannot be disclosed lest the markets figure out what is happening, is the gold being used to plug holes in the increasingly leaky dike of Western central bank and bullion bank gold price suppression?
Is the gold being rationed to members of the London Bullion Market Association, whose impossibly short positions in gold and silver were disclosed over the last six months in reports by GATA board member Adrian Douglas (see http://www.gata.org/node/7908, http://www.gata.org/node/7911, and http://www.gata.org/node/8388) and then candidly confirmed by CPM Group founder Jeffrey M. Christian at the March 25 hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (see http://www.gata.org/node/8478)?
It's too bad that the World Gold Council, which reportedly has an annual budget above $60 million, doesn't press these questions after thumbing through those subtle IMF reports. But then it's too bad that the World Gold Council exists mainly to ensure that there never is a world gold council.
Today's Reuters story is appended.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
IMF Sold 18.5 Tonnes of Gold in March vs 5.6 Tonnes in February
From Reuters
via Yahoo News
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100505/tbs-gold-imf-sale-7318940.html
NEW YORK -- The International Monetary Fund sold 18.5 tonnes of gold in March under the second phase of its gold sales program, industry group World Gold Council said on Tuesday.
The IMF's sales, which totaled 5.6 tonnes in February, are taking place under the umbrella of the third Central Bank Gold Agreement, which began in September 2009. Signatories of the CBGA are largely euro zone central banks, the largest gold holder of which is Germany.
Natalie Dempster, WGC's director of government affairs, said IMF released the data in its monthly International Financial Statistics publication.
Total sales under the pact, which limits signatories' gold sales to 400 tonnes a year, were just 7.2 tonnes to April 20.
The IMF began its planned sales of 403.3 tonnes of gold last year. It sold 200 tonnes to India and smaller amounts to Sri Lanka and Mauritius last year.
The price of gold gained almost 6 percent in April, its biggest one-month rise since November, as the credit ratings downgrades of Greece, Spain, and Portugal, sparked a flight to safety into the metal.